The National Retail Federation (NRF) has forecasted that winter holiday spending will rise by 2.5% to 3.5% over 2023 levels, reaching between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in November and December. This increase comes in comparison to $955.6 billion spent during the same months last year.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay noted the positive economic environment contributing to the holiday outlook: “The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” he said. “The winter holidays are an important tradition for American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”
NRF’s forecast for the holiday season aligns with its annual projection for overall retail growth in 2024, which is also set at 2.5% to 3.5% over 2023 levels. A significant contributor to this growth is expected to come from online shopping, which continues to expand rapidly. NRF expects online and non-store sales to increase between 8% and 9%, reaching a total of $295.1 billion to $297.9 billion, compared to $273.3 billion last year. Last holiday season, non-store sales grew by 10.7% over 2022.
“We remain optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected for the latter half of the year,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households may spend with a bit more caution.”
To meet anticipated consumer demand, retailers are expected to hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers, slightly down from the 509,000 hired last year. Some of these hires may have started earlier, as retailers prepared for holiday shopping events that began in October.
This year’s holiday shopping season will also be slightly shorter, with the span from Thanksgiving to Christmas totaling 26 days, five fewer than in 2023. Additional influences include economic impacts from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Although the 2024 U.S. presidential election coincides with the holiday season, its effect on spending is difficult to predict.
The NRF’s holiday forecast incorporates various economic indicators, including consumer spending, income, employment, wages, inflation, and historical retail trends, and excludes data from automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants. NRF defines the holiday season as running from November 1 through December 31.
Editors Note: When possible, support our economy here at home and buy local!
